Inflation in line with estimates. New All-Time Highs. USDJPY collapses

Inflation in line with expectations at 3.4%, retail sales falling compared to expectations and the Ny Empire State manufacturing index worse than the previous data and estimates, this is the photo of the data released today at 2.30 pm and which led to the afternoon at new historic highs for US stock indices. For overcoming the historic highsonly the Dow Jones is missing, for the remaining main indices such as Nasdaq, S&P500, Dax and Ftse Mib, we have seen the prices updated to new highs.


L’inflation came out in line with estimates at 3.4%, a figure which is therefore bearish compared to the previous figure, a figure which in fact further postpones, at least in theory, the rate cut. What is worrying is the data on retail sales falling significantly below expectations who saw 3.8% as an estimate, the data came out at 3%, a noticeable drop that underlines how in reality the USA may not be as healthy as Powell claims in his press conferences. Another figure that adds to retail sales is that of NY Manufacturing Empire State, a fact that in recent months has actually been quite frightening, especially in the month of January. Today’s data was expected to be negative but an improvement compared to the starting data. The data is out more than negative, below the estimates and below the starting figure, to be precise at -15.6 against the starting figure at -14.3 and against the estimates which saw a -10. The manufacturing sector and retail sales are doing badly, added to these data the NAHB house price index, which is also negative. The data was intended for a confirmation of the starting data, i.e. 51, the data comes out at 45 to underline how the US real estate sector is also starting to suffer. What we see is not a particularly exceptional picture, especially in view of the next data relating to US unemployment rate scheduled for release on June 7, just a week before the next Federal Reserve meeting.


The exchange rate finds the opportunity to continue the downward trend that began two weeks ago, all thanks to the volatility expected for the release of US inflation. A fact that has little influence in terms of macroeconomic impact, but certainly decisive in terms of the increase in market fluctuations, the event that led to the exchange rate UsdJpy to a strong descent from the area 156.50 to area 154.80, a drop of almost 2 figures. This is an excellent starting point to see more bearish extensions in the next few days, thus confirming a short-term trend that is generally bearish.

UsdJpy on daily timeframe – Source:XStation


While GameStop and AMC collapse under the blows of volatility, the stock markets record new all-time highs. Dax has already recorded them in recent days, yesterday it was the turn of the update of the same Ftse Mibtoday it was the turn of the American indices S&P500 And Nasdaq. Dynamic strongly bullish and hyperbolic trend towards new highs, a dynamic that does not invite sales given the strength of the movement on a daily basis. The current bullish dynamic appears to be graphically the strongest since the beginning of the year, with few retracements except in individual market sessions followed by strong, continuous increases, without noteworthy pauses. The market reaches the highs without second thoughts, indeed, it seems like an even stronger market than at the beginning of the year. Attention to Nasdaq single stocksFor example Nvidia which today went to forcefully break the April highs and is approaching its historical highs recorded in March, the stock is now trading above $940 a share. With a Vix at the lows and a UsdJpy that is sold while hedges are bought on the bond market, the situation appears to be very dangerous in terms of risk.

NVIDIA daily timeframe chart – Source:XStation

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