The September summer has continued for several days now in our region, where the protagonists are good weather and temperatures many degrees above the seasonal average for the period. The most intense phase of this prolonged African heat wave is arriving on our island in these hours, and will continue throughout the first part of the week. In fact, a vast Atlantic depression has now reached British Isles and pushing towards the Iberian peninsula, is allowing the rise of hot isotherms towards our region, with peaks of +22/+23°C at 850 hPa which will reach us between today and tomorrow, Tuesday 19 September 2023.
In this first phase, the mainly northern ventilation will favor the achievement of maximum temperatures above +35/36°C in the sectors interior of the island and on the sector south-eastern, while the sultry heat along the coasts will continue. Even the nights will continue to be very warm, where in many coastal areas the minimum temperatures should not fall below +20°C. Subsequently, between Wednesday 20 September and Thursday 21, the Atlantic trough we talked about above, should have reached and dropped in latitude towards the western and central Mediterranean, allowing for phases with more consistent southern calls to our island. In fact, in this phase, maximum peaks of up to could be reached +36/+37°C also on the northern Tyrrhenian sector due to the activation of falling winds, and some first showers of rain may also be possible.
Storm phase later?
Many meteorological mathematical models first outline the passage of a storm front with the entry of the previously mentioned Atlantic front, and the isolation of a cold drop right around our region between next weekend and the beginning of the next. This scenario would allow not only a real thermal collapse, but also the possibility of a moderate/intense unstable phase for our island. Given the temporal distance, we will wait for the next few days to have more details on the matter.
