Moderated by the director of the Giornale d’Italia, Luca Greco, today the Aurora hall of Palazzo Trentini hosted a debate on the phenomena that in Italy have led to an inversion of the demographic curve, starting from 1964, in which there were one million born, to 399,000 born in 2021. An estimated drop of 11 million people by the end of the century with a critical impact on the health and social security system. The causes converge on a network of imbalances: the economic crisis, wars, the pandemic, youth unemployment, cultural change. The world population continues to grow but Italy is bringing up the rear, together with Spain. The author of the book, Luca Cifoni, gave examples of some Italian regions with opposite conditions: from Sardinia with 0.95 children per woman to Trentino Alto-Adige, which records a counter-trend trend with 1.51 children per woman , while in Italy the average is stable at 1.25.
FESTIVAL OF THE ECONOMY FESTIVAL OF THE ECONOMY The cradle trap. Why not having children is a problem for Italy and how to get out of it In the photo: Luca GRECO, Luca CIFONI Date 26 May 2023 Place: PALAZZO TRENTINI, Sala Aurora [
Nicola Eccher – Archivio Ufficio Stampa PAT]
Today at the Festival of Economics in Trento the presentation of the book “The cradle trap. Why not having children is a problem for Italy and how to get out of it” written by journalists Luca Cifoni and Diodato Pirone. Present in the room Cifoni, economic journalist of the Messenger. At the center of the debate is demographics in free fall in Italy, a phenomenon neglected by the Italian state for too many years. “We are less than 59 million – he said – and we must worry about it because falling below 40 million at the end of the century will have political, social security, economic and health consequences. And he added – Italy is an innovative country and, without young people, it risks becoming conservative and slowing down its economic growth ”.
The moderator, Luca Greco, highlighted that pension expenditure accounts for 16% of public expenditure. The dead outnumber those born and immigrants are no longer enough, given that their propensity to have children is also declining. “But the real decrease has been recorded since 2008 – said Greco – why?”.
Cifoni explained that until 2008 the flow of migrants compensated for the drop in the natural balance but the following year the economic crisis began and in 15 years there was a 32% drop in births equal to 187,000 people. This drop depends 1/3 on the lower propensity to have children; the other 2/3 are due to the fact that the number of potential parents is decreasing. “If we want to counter it, we can only affect 1/3 of the phenomenon – said Cifoni”. Another critical issue derives from the fact that in Italy the average age of mothers is 31.3 years (year 2019) against 26.9 in Romania. If age is delayed, the potential for having more children is reduced.”
The paradox is that the world’s poorest countries continue to have children and Nigeria is at the top with 5 children per woman. The reason is found in the need to have children who concretely help to support the family budget. Important data also emerged, such as demographic growth in Northern European countries, where the female employment rate is higher. Finally, Cifoni brought, at the Italian level, the most virtuous example and that is Trentino where family policies have become the protagonists of the Government’s action, emphasizing, on the one hand, the establishment of a provincial agency for social cohesion, dedicated to fuel actions in support of families and, on the other hand, corporate welfare which, thanks to the Family Audit certification, has introduced work-life balance interventions in hundreds of companies, such as flexible hours and company nursery schools. “The State can do a lot – he said in conclusion – but companies can do the same and here is an example to be replicated in other Italian regions”.
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