Here’s the problem: you can clearly see it in this map, the disturbed Atlantic flow runs too north to reach the Mediterranean latitudes; that family of cyclones that you see between the Atlantic, the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe, until 30 years ago was positioned much further south and in Italy it rained, so much so that the perturbations in transit were NUMBERED.
Today there is a serious one in a whole season, we cry out for a miracle, we have already written it, we repeat it. All this is attributable to the rise of the Hadley cell towards the north, in practice the climatic bands are shifting.
Thus it is also understandable why if a meridian heat exchange north-south does not take placethat is, a cold irruption that reaches us and generates contrasts, of rain or snow on Italy now arrives very little.
With the exception of the cold drop in transit these days, the daughter of one of those hollows that just can’t make it to Italy without flaking anymore, the end of March will bring us right to touch this inconclusive zonal reality: a very rapid flow of westerly currents that fails to produce almost nothing in terms of precipitation:
And the (disturbing) risk, even if not yet a certainty, that at the end of the month, instead of the rain, the subtropical anticyclone will take over with spring becoming almost an early summer:
And is there no hope? Yes, for the moment there areluckily, the cards do not all go towards the anticyclonic thesis, certainly the statistics do not comfort, the presence of the anticyclone is now increasingly redundant, but here is one of the perturbed options, for the moment heavily minority and in any case dependent on a north-south action, with depressions in the north and generalized bad weather for 29-30 March.
We always go badly on the rain front, there is no real turning point that can give spring a dynamic face and a harbinger of abundant rainfall that will put the rainfall balances in order. Until the end of the month, the chances of a bad weather wave remain low.