From the wear and tear of a “half” victory to the presidential temptation of “exceptional powers”. From the Italian-style technical government to the institutional vacuum of an Elysée abandoned by a resigning Emmanuel Macron. These are the four shades of chaos into which France risks sinking if next Sunday Jordan Bardella and the Rassemblement National (RN) do not reach the threshold of 289 seats essential to govern by absolute majority.
THE WEAR AND TEAR OF HALF VICTORY
This is the scenario dearest to Emmanuel Macron. And the one most feared by Jordan Bardella, who has so far been against accepting the office of prime minister without an absolute majority. Macron, in short, would have dissolved the National Assembly precisely because he was convinced that RN would never have won the seats needed to govern. In Macron’s plans, a “halved” victory will force RN to wear itself out in the search for government alliances, distorting its program and dissatisfying voters. A scenario aggravated by the anomaly of a RN without a well-established ruling class and forced to govern by relying on the apparatus of state officials and bureaucrats inherited from past administrations. A lethal combination capable not only of demolishing Bardella’s credibility and paralyzing his eventual executive, but also of thwarting the dreams of Marine Le Pen, determined to conquer the Elysée in the 2027 presidential elections.
THE ESCAPE FROM THE ÉLYSEE
The stalemate caused by the absence of a majority and the tug-of-war between Macron and a Rassemblement incapable of forming a government risks proving pernicious also for the tenant of the Elysée. Also because, unable to have his decisions ratified by Parliament, Macron would be accused of going off the rails of democracy. But his resignation would leave France without executive power. And the ungovernability caused by the clash between the Elysée and the Rassemblement would end up making both the choice of Marine Le Pen and that of the other candidates for succession extremely uncertain.
AN ITALIAN-STYLE TECHNICAL GOVERNMENT
For days, the possibility of an Italian-style solution has been being considered in the halls of French power, that is, a “technical” government led by a Mario Draghi-like personality. The French Draghi would have the task of governing the country for at least a year, the interval before which France cannot, by law, return to the polls. From what has leaked out, the Macronians are concentrating on the names of Christine Lagarde, Draghi’s successor as president of the European Central Bank, or even the octogenarian Jean-Claude Trichet, predecessor of both. But to stand on its own two feet, a technical government would still need a majority, that is, numbers that the Macronian and left-wing parliamentarians together will not be able to guarantee.
THE TEMPTATION OF “EXCEPTIONAL POWERS”
The insistence with which the Elysée and the government of Gabriel Attal hint at the risk of incidents capable of jeopardizing the opening of the Olympics on July 26 does not convince the leaders of RN. Article 16 of the Constitution allows the Elysée to assume “exceptional powers” in the event of a threat to institutions, independence. Territorial integrity or even the “regular functioning of public powers”.
The only one to use it was Charles de Gaulle after the attempted coup d’état of the OAS during the conflict in Algeria. But the hints of a risk of ungovernability and the impossibility of guaranteeing public order during the Games unnerve a right wing convinced that Macron is ready to do anything to not give up power.
