Understand and analyze the history of Dengue disease in Italy to prevent any future outbreaks after the international emergency in the first months of 2024. This is the objective of the international study, with a heavy weight of Italian brains, sent to the ‘Scientific Data’ platform of ‘Nature’. “The work examines in detail the recent outbreaks and local transmission chains that occurred in 2023, a record year with over 300 cases and 80 local infections, mainly concentrated in Lombardy, Lazio and Emilia Romagna. The research is particularly relevant because it has created an unprecedented ‘open access dataset’, which integrates epidemiological, genomic, climatic and geographical data on reports of Dengue in Italy from 2015 to today. This digital archive is easily consultable and available to the international scientific community at the website www.github.com/fbranda/dengue”. He explains this to Adnkronos Salute Francesco Branda, of the Statistical Medicine and Molecular Epidemiology Unit of the Campus Bio-Medico University of Romethe first signatory of the study, which also involves the universities of Sassari and the Lumsa of Rome, the Stanford University School of Medicine, the Izs of Piedmont-Liguria-Valle d’Aosta, the Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (Brazil) and the Biomedical Research Center in Lisbon.
“With the increase in global temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, conditions could become increasingly favorable to the spread of Dengue – says Branda – The creation of this digital archive, which contains a vast range of epidemiological, genomic and climatic data and geographic information relating to Dengue in Italy, constitutes a crucial step towards accurate monitoring and a timely response to the growing risk of the spread of the disease in the Old Continent due to ongoing climate change. This resource – he continues – not only provides a detailed overview of the current situation of Dengue in our country, but also an essential point of reference for scientific research and planning of preventive and control interventions. However, effectively tackling Dengue requires a coordinated commitment at a global level”.
The conclusions of the study
What are the main conclusions emerging from the study on the transmission of the Dengue virus in Italy? “We have highlighted variations in the suitability for transmission of the Dengue virus between 2015 and 2023, with specific areas such as Sicily, the continental coasts and some areas of the northern macro-regions presenting an intermediate-high suitability for transmission – clarifies Branda – In 2023 Italy has reported an exceptionally high number of indigenous Dengue cases, with a suitability for transmission slightly higher than the historical average, with 19% of the Italian territory showing a suitability above 1 for at least one month”. Dengue transmission in 2023 was observed mainly in the North-West, North-East and Central macro-regions, following the geographical distribution of reported indigenous cases.
“A universal annual increase in average temperature in Italy has been highlighted, with the highest rates of increase found in the North-East macroregion followed by the North-West, Center and South/Island – recalls Branda – The co-circulation of the Denv1 genotypes and Denv3 in Italy in 2023 occurred during a large expansion in Latin American countries, underlining the importance of genomic surveillance to identify local introductions and transmission chains. 2023 – observes the scientist – was an exceptional year for the ‘Italy due to the high number of reported cases and the co-occurrence of indigenous transmission chains of more than one serotype, with age profiles indicating a higher incidence in the 20-39 age group. These conclusions underline “the importance of active surveillance, understanding transmission patterns and considering climatic factors and human mobility to monitor and contain the introductions of Dengue and other arboviruses in Italy”, Branda comments.
