The deep vortex of low pressure with minimum over Scotland is already clearly visible from the satellite images which in its progressive movement towards the Germany it will be responsible for a recall of cold currents of Scandinavian origin towards the Mediterranean basin.
As reported by 3bmeteo, a modest irruption, but which will nevertheless find sufficient thermal contrasts to form a secondary vortex which will evolve right on theItaly. The minimum initially over Liguria will slide quickly over the central regions by Tuesday and between Wednesday and Thursday it will be over Sicily. Intense cloud systems will rotate around the minimum, capable of bringing rain, including showers or thunderstorms, accompanied by strong cyclonic ventilation and a drop in temperatures.
The latter will mainly affect the central-northern regions. When dealing with cyclonic circulations from scratch it is always difficult to make a detailed forecast but we will still try to make an overview of the weather that awaits us until Thursday with the help of the latest modeling releases, aware that timing and locations could still change.
Tuesday 20 November
On Tuesday the minimum will be in central Italy. It will be here that we will have the greatest instability with showers and some thunderstorms, locally moderate. The weather will also be unstable in Emilia Romagna, Sardinia and Campania. Snowfall is also expected in the central and northern Apennines at high altitudes, above 1800/2000m. Elsewhere, wider clearings are expected. Temperatures dropping since the evening. The ventilation will become stronger with a northern component in the North and a western or southern component in the Center-South. The seas will all be very rough or rough with storm surges.
On Wednesday the minimum will be in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The instability should affect the entire South and a part of the Center, especially the middle Adriatic. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected with snow that will drop in altitude in the central Apennines even below 1200/1400m. Temperatures will drop further. Strong winds with a prevailing northern component in the Center and North, Southern in the extreme South. Rough seas with storm surges.
Wednesday 21 November
The minimum will be over the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The instability should affect the entire South and a part of the Center, especially the middle Adriatic. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected with snow that will drop in altitude in the central Apennines even below 1200/1400m. Temperatures will drop further. Strong winds with a prevailing northern component in the Center and North, Southern in the extreme South. Rough seas with storm surges.
Thursday 22 November
Thursday the minimum will be in the Strait of Sicily. The most marked instability is expected on the island, Calabria, Basilicata and Puglia. Elsewhere clear spells should prevail. Temperatures will drop further slightly. Strong winds from the north-eastern or eastern quadrants. Seas still rough with local storms.
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