price shock, here are all the increases coming

Fuels: diesel fuel is likely to overtake petrol

The most disruptive news concerns the price of fuel, which is being adjusted upwards. The Government has decided to accelerate the realignment of excise dutiesa measure that has been discussed for years but has never before been implemented with this force.

With the new mechanism provided for by the 2026 Budget Law, the excise duty (i.e. the consumption tax) on petrol drops by 4.05 centswhile that on diesel rises by the exact same figure: 4.05 cents per litre.

The result contains a paradox: if today diesel costs on average less than “green”, from January the ratio will reverse. Considering current prices, we could see petrol drop towards i as early as January 1,67 €/l and the diesel splashes over me 1,73 €/l.

L’impact will be considerable: for a diesel car with a 50 liter tank, each fill up will cost approx 2 euros more. On an annual basis, the extra expense for those driving average mileages will exceed 100 euro.

Tobacco: smoking is becoming an increasingly expensive luxury

Smokers are also targeted. The maneuver does not provide for an increase “only one“, similar to the small upward adjustments made in the past, but a three-year plan of gradual increases which will bring high-end packages towards the psychological threshold of 10 euro by 2028.

For them straditional cigarettes the immediate increase in 2026 will be approx 15 cents per packagebut this is only the beginning of an already planned climb, which will see increases of 25 and 40 cents in the following two years.

To standardize taxation, similar increases will also affect the tchopped abacco and cigars.

Not even consumers of new generation products, such as the E-cig and the heated tobacco: for inhalation liquids the charge on each package will be approximately 1.50 euros for those with nicotine and 1 euro for those without.

The domino effect of price increases on the shopping cart

The truth hidden price increasehowever, it is not what we pay at the fuel pump or tobacconist’s cash register, but what we find on the shelves of the shops and supermarkets where we buy the common consumer goodsstarting from foodstuffs.

The increase in diesel prices, in fact, hits the transportation sector hard.road haulage (around 200 million euros of extra costs estimated by Assotir). Since in Italy 85% of goods travel by road, the increase in fuel costs for trucks will inevitably be passed on to prices of basic necessities: fruit, vegetables, milk and bread.

It’s what analysts call “transport inflation“: an indirect tax that affects all families without distinction. It weighs not only on food, but also on other goods, such as industrial products and building materials: in short, everything that travels mainly by road to reach the places of distribution to final consumers.

Summary of major price increases in 2026

Will the family bonuses be able to cover the price increases?

To balance the increases in diesel and tobacco prices, the 2026 Budget introduces some important innovations on the support for families front. The highlight is the ISEE reformwhich will have a direct impact onSingle Check.

With the “home discount” effect (the main home is excluded from the calculation of the indicator: its value is not counted, up to a threshold of 200,000 euros, for families residing in metropolitan cities), many middle-class families who were previously “too rich” due to the cadastral value of the home will see their ISEE drop significantly. And a lower ISEE automatically translates into a Larger Single Allowance every month.

This advantage is in addition to the benefit deriving from IRPEF cut for the middle class (the rate drops by two percentage points, from 35% to 33%, for incomes between 28 thousand and 50 thousand euros). For those at the top of the range, the tax savings it can reach 440 euros.

Furthermore, we must not forget that they are present in Maneuver 2026 measures to support familieslike the Enhanced nest bonus (for second children born into families with an ISEE of up to 40 thousand euros, the contribution can reach up to 3,600 euros per year, in order to almost entirely cover the nursery school fees) and the tax relief for working mothers of two or more children who will be exempt from paying social security contributions (up to 3,000 euros per year). This translates into a slightly higher net salary.

But all of that will it be enough to cover the price increases? In many cases, yes. If we add the IRPEF cut and the recalculation of the Single Allowance thanks to the rule on the house outside the ISEE, an average family with children living in the city could find itself with around 600-1,000 euros more per year.

This little treasure is for amply compensate for the “sting” on diesel and tobacco (estimated at approximately 150-200 euros of additional expenses per year, leaving a positive balance. However, for singles or couples without children who live in small municipalities, the advantage is much smaller, and the increases in the prices of consumer goods could be felt more.