Especially those who live in the northern regionsin particular weather enthusiasts who scrupulously follow mathematical forecast models, announce the arrival of a period of high pressure with even summer-like characteristics. But let’s analyze the differences. First of all, this high pressure will have an extremely short duration compared to the summer anticyclones and, let’s be clear, its nature is purely winter. In the past we have seen numerous winters with similar high pressures, but with a much longer duration than the current one.
He always complains about the weather, a common habit almost everywhere, except in those areas where the weather conditions are stable, sunny and characterized by a usually clear climate. I can cite, for example, the Canary Islands. In EuropaHowever, climate variability is very different.
During the winter we expect a harsher climate than the current one, but we must remember that the climate change it also has a significant impact on daily weather.
However, the winter of 2024-25 it is proving to be very different from the previous one, showing different phenomena and greater variability. Those living in Northern Italy are observing a more stable climatealthough less monotonous than last winter. But, let’s be clear, the lower atmospheric instability in the North does not exclude the winter character of the weather in the rest of Italy, where atmospheric variability is more markedwith heavy snowfalls expected in the next few days on the low-altitude mountains. A season is not defined only by the weather Valpadana; let’s get out of our limited vision.
High pressure will have a marginal influence on Italymore marked in northern regions due to the effect of the European anticyclone. However, the North sees the lowest annual precipitation peak, and drought periods are certainly not anomalous. We will return to this point, because the snow, sooner or later, will return. Summer anticyclones, on the other hand, often have North African origins, while currently in Lower Mediterranean Areas of low pressure and severe weather are observed, with the high pressure maximum located north of Alpsa typical phenomenon of the winter season.
During winter, cold air tends to stay in the lower layers, such as the plains, where the majority of the Italian and European population resides. This means that, with high pressure, temperatures will remain low, especially at night, when they will approach the 30-year averages. During the day, where the sun will be shining, relatively mild maximum temperatures may be recorded, but in the valleys and plains of Northern Italy the characteristic thermal inversion will prevail.
In the plains ofCentral Europe Dense fogs will form, like those observed recently, which have caused serious traffic disruptions and the closure of numerous airports. In summer, however, these situations do not occur; the heat becomes muggy and the days mostly sunny. Summer storms, although localized, are often very intense.
This anticyclone cannot even be defined as spring-like, although it is part of a climatic trend that has changed our climate. Similar phenomena were already observed in the 80s of the last century, when however there was still no talk of climate change.
In conclusion, it is not normal to have long-lasting high blood pressure, and this time it won’t be so, it won’t last long. However, it isn’t even that unusual for it to show up. This year, the dynamics of air masses is particularly lively. In Italy, the orography of the territory amplifies the climatic effects, and in the next few days heavy snowfall will affect the low-altitude mountains of central and southern Italy. They will make the news, and the cold, although not accompanied by an extreme wave of frost, will also reach the highly critical “cold lovers” of the Northern Italy, where temperatures will drop below the reference average. Subsequently, the values will increase. What can we do? The climate has changed and we are experiencing the effects of climate fluctuations and climate change.
This is not summer. This is not a summer anticyclone. During the summer, high pressures do not reach values above 1040 hPa, as they will in Central Europe. This phenomenon will be short-lived and linked to the variability of the polar vortex, which will be felt more strongly in this period Nord Americawith violent waves of frost until Gulf of Mexico, capable of freezing even the ponds where crocodiles live.
Tell the Americans if this is summer. Their orography is completely different from that of Europe. The supposed “summer” in Europe in winter is just an anomaly due to particular atmospheric currentswhich favor, depending on your opinion, hot or cold. Winter is not over.
We will update with new weather analyses, based on the latest data available from mathematical forecast models.
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